New GDP series upgrades FY26 growth to 7.6%

28 FEBRUARY 2026

India’s GDP Growth Outlook (2025–26)

India’s economic growth is expected to reach 7.6% in FY 2025–26, according to the Second Advance Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) released by the government.
This is higher than the 7.4% projected in the First Advance Estimates released in January 2026, which were based on the older GDP series.
The revised estimates are based on a new GDP series with an updated base year of 2022–23, replacing the earlier 2011–12 base year.

Revision in Past Growth Rates

The new GDP series has revised the growth rate for 2023–24 downward to 7.2%, compared to 9.2% estimated under the old series.
The growth rate for 2024–25 has been revised upward to 7.1%, compared to the earlier estimate of 6.5%.
These revisions reflect changes in methodology and updated data sources under the new base year system.

Nominal GDP and Fiscal Impact

India’s nominal GDP for the years 2023–24 to 2025–26 has been revised downward under the new series.
The size of the economy for 2025–26 is now estimated at ₹345.47 lakh crore, which is about 3.3% smaller than the estimate under the old series.
A lower nominal GDP will negatively impact key fiscal ratios such as the fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio and the debt-to-GDP ratio, as these are calculated relative to GDP.

Sector-wise Growth Trends

(A) Primary Sector

The primary sector is expected to slow significantly, with growth estimated at 2.8% in 2025–26, compared to 5% in 2024–25.
Growth in the agriculture sector is projected to decline to 2.5%, down from 4.3% in the previous year.
The mining and quarrying sector is expected to grow at 5%, sharply lower than 11.2% in 2024–25.

(B) Secondary Sector

The secondary sector is expected to grow at 9.5% in FY 2025–26, compared to 7.3% in 2024–25.
This growth is largely driven by the manufacturing sector, which is projected to expand by 12.5%, up from 8.3% in the previous year.
The construction sector is expected to grow at 6.9%, slightly lower than 7.1% recorded in 2024–25.

(C) Tertiary (Services) Sector

The tertiary sector is expected to grow at 8.9% in FY 2025–26, up from 8.3% in the previous year.
The trade, hotels, transport, and communication segment is projected to record 10.3% growth.
The financial, real estate, IT, and professional services grouping is expected to grow by 10%, contributing significantly to overall services expansion.