Asteroid YR4: no longer a threat

11 MARCH 2026

NASA has officially ruled out the possibility of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with the moon in 2032.
The 65-meter-wide 2024 YR4, the newest evidence confirms it is no longer a threat to the earth or its moon.
This update settles concerns that first surfaced after the asteroid’s discovery in late 2024.
For several months, orbital models suggested a small but notable 3.8% to 4.3% chance that the rock would strike the lunar surface on December 22, 2032.
To resolve the uncertainty, experts from NASA’s Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies used the James Webb Space Telescope to track the object.
In February 2026, the team made two important observations while the asteroid was extremely faint, a feat impossible for most other observatories.
These new data points have reportedly allowed the scientists to refine the asteroid’s trajectory with higher precision.
The latest calculations show that 2024 YR4 will safely bypass the moon at a distance of around 21,200 km.