Wheat buyers brace for supply crunch amid Black Sea attacks

21 AUGUST 2026

Black Sea Disruptions Tighten Wheat Supplies

Attacks on Black Sea grain infrastructure have disrupted wheat shipments and raised concerns about food security among major importing countries.
Russia and Ukraine have carried out tit-for-tat attacks on ports and vessels, disrupting grain terminals during the peak export season.
Several cargoes have been delayed or cancelled because ships have been unable to safely reach ports for loading.

Wheat Prices Rise Sharply

Chicago wheat futures have risen by more than 17% since the beginning of July because of concerns over reduced Black Sea supplies.
Physical wheat prices have also increased in major alternative exporting countries such as Argentina, Australia and the United States.
The disruption is therefore affecting not only Black Sea wheat but also the prices of wheat from competing exporters.

Harvests Provide Some Relief

Stronger wheat harvests in parts of the Middle East and North Africa have temporarily reduced the impact of the Black Sea disruptions.
Better rainfall has also improved crop prospects in Morocco and Tunisia.

Egypt and Indonesia : world’s largest wheat buyers

Egypt is the world’s largest wheat importer and obtained more than 82% of its wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine during the first half of 2026.
Egypt has purchased record quantities of locally produced wheat, reducing some of its immediate dependence on imports.
Indonesia, the world’s second-largest wheat buyer, had contracted around 600,000 tonnes from former Soviet grain exporters for July–September shipments.
Indonesian flour millers currently have enough stocks to meet immediate food-grade wheat requirements.
However, they do not have large surplus stocks and may have to purchase wheat from Bulgaria, Australia, Romania and Argentina if Russian and Ukrainian shipments are disrupted.
Countries such as Algeria, Bangladesh, Jordan, Thailand, Tunisia and Vietnam also depend significantly on wheat supplies from Russia and Ukraine.
These countries may face higher prices and difficulties in securing sufficient supplies if Black Sea exports remain disrupted.
Importers are therefore being forced to diversify their sources of wheat.

Risk of a Global Wheat Shortage

Traders are warning that the situation could become more serious if alternative supplies cannot be arranged quickly.
If Black Sea shipments remain disrupted, importers may have to compete for wheat from Australia, Argentina, North America and other exporters.
This could further increase global wheat prices and transportation costs.
Prolonged disruption could ultimately create food-security problems for countries that depend heavily on imported wheat.