Rationalising Iran’s nuclear capability

4 MAY 2026

Under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to abandon its nuclear programme, Iran has “vowed” to protect its nuclear stockpile.
At the same time, former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei disapproved of the use of nuclear weapons on religious grounds. How does Iran reconcile the two positions?
Iran joined the NPT in 1970 but has recently expressed doubts about its participation.

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)

It is a landmark international accord aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, promoting cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy, and advancing nuclear disarmament.
It is in force since 1970 and extended indefinitely in 1995.
Key Provisions:
Non-Proliferation: Non-nuclear-weapon states pledge not to acquire/produce nuclear weapon
Disarmament: Nuclear-weapon states commit to pursuing negotiations to eventually eliminate their nuclear arsenals.
Peaceful Use: Parties have the right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes under international safeguards.

The treaty recognizes five nuclear-weapon states: The United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom
It boasts nearly 190 state parties. However, India, Israel, and Pakistan have never signed it.
NPT discourages countries from developing nuclear weapons, but does not prevent them from developing the ability to make these weapons.
This is ostensibly because some of the same technologies and processes are necessary in a civilian nuclear programme, such as generating nuclear power and making nuclear isotopes for medical use.
But the NPT expects the civilian programme to include some safeguards like closely monitoring the use of technologies like uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) contributes as an independent watchdog that performs intrusive inspections.
The NPT is reviewed every five years to evaluate its efficacy, with the next review conference scheduled for 2026.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

IAEA was established in 1957 as the world’s “Atoms for Peace and Development” organization,
It is headquartered in Vienna, Austria.
It promotes safe, secure, and peaceful nuclear technologies while implementing safeguards to prevent nuclear proliferation

How close is Iran to a nuclear weapon?

Iran is a threshold state, capable of beecoming a nuclear-weapon state, with a breakout time widely understood to be in the order of a few weeks.
It is also thought to possess around 500 kg of uranium enriched to 60%.
Nuclear power reactors require uranium enriched to significantly under 20%.
Weapons-grade uranium requires 90%.
Iran abided by the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a.k.a. the Iran deal, until Mr. Trump unilaterally exited it in 2018.

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA),

JCPOA, known as Iran Nuclear Deal, is a 2015 agreement between Iran and the P5+1 (USA, UK, France, China, Russia, plus Germany) designed to ensure Iran’s nuclear program remains peaceful.
It imposed limits on uranium enrichment and heavy-water reactors, subjected facilities to IAEA monitoring, and provided sanctions relief.
In 2018, the US, during first term of President Trump, withdrew, leading to reduced compliance by Iran.

Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW)

It is a legally binding UN instrument that entered into force on January 22, 2021, marking the first global agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons.
It prohibits the development, testing, possession, use, or stationing of nuclear weapons, aiming for their total elimination.